【冰質美股】20250329(六)Lululemon Bleak full-year forecast / Lululemon 財測不如預期

作者:納蘭雪敏


今年財測不如預期
Full-Year Guidance Falls Short of Expectations

Lululemon在第四季度的每股盈餘達到6.14美元,超過預期,但對2025財年的財測,預計每股盈餘在14.95至15.15美元之間,低於分析師預估的15.37美元。這使投資者對公司的未來增長產生疑慮。Lululemon 財務長 Meghan Frank 在財報電話會議上告訴投資者,與第一季的疲軟表現相比,他們預計今年門市客流量不會有改善。

Lululemon reported earnings per share of $6.14 for the fourth quarter, exceeding expectations. However, its guidance for fiscal year 2025 projected earnings per share between $14.95 and $15.15, falling short of analysts’ estimate of $15.37. This has raised concerns among investors about the company’s future growth. During the earnings call, Lululemon CFO Meghan Frank told investors that, compared to the weak performance in the first quarter, they do not expect any improvement in store traffic this year.

財報亮點
Earnings Highlights

第四季營收(不含第 53 週)年增約 8%,按固定匯率年增 9%。
營業利益率增加 40 個基點至 28.9%,每股盈餘(EPS)年增 16%。
全年營收達 106 億美元,年增 8%-9%(不含第 53 週)。
調整後營業利益率提升至 23.7%,每股盈餘年增 15%。
從 2021 年至今營收 CAGR 為 19%,每股盈餘 CAGR 為 23%,超越三倍成長 x2 策略原定目標。
2024 年回購 16 億美元股票,顯示對長期展望有信心。
EPS本季比市場預期高出4.96%,年增16.07%。

Revenue for the fourth quarter (excluding the 53rd week) increased approximately 8% year over year, or 9% on a constant currency basis.
Operating margin expanded by 40 basis points to 28.9%, with earnings per share (EPS) growing 16% year over year.
Full-year revenue reached $10.6 billion, representing an 8%-9% increase year over year (excluding the 53rd week).
Adjusted operating margin improved to 23.7%, and full-year EPS increased 15% year over year.
Since 2021, revenue has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19%, and EPS has grown at a CAGR of 23%, exceeding the goals set under the “Power of Three ×2” strategy.
In 2024, the company repurchased $1.6 billion worth of shares, demonstrating confidence in its long-term outlook.
EPS for the quarter beat market expectations by 4.96%, with a year-over-year increase of 16.07%.

產品與創新
Product and Innovation

Glow Up:女性新訓練系列,採用 Ultralu 布料。
Daydrift:女性休閒褲款,反應熱烈,部分尺寸顏色售罄。
BeCalm:瑜珈系列新成員,極致柔軟、舒適。
Align 系列 10 週年:推出無前縫緊身褲、寬褲等新產品。
男性短褲推出 Mile Maker 系列、License to Train 更新。
女性 Fast and Free 系列將有新色與短褲款。
將推出名為 Lulu Linen 的新布料。

Glow Up: A new women’s training collection featuring Ultralu fabric.
Daydrift: A new women’s casual pant line that received strong consumer response, with some sizes and colors sold out.
BeCalm: A new addition to the yoga collection, offering ultra-soft and comfortable options.
Align 10-Year Anniversary: New product launches including seamless-front leggings and wide-leg pants.
For men, the Mile Maker short and an updated License to Train series were introduced.
For women, the Fast and Free line will feature new colors and short styles.
A new fabric called Lulu Linen will be introduced.

品牌與行銷
Brand and Marketing

全球品牌知名度仍低,美國無提示品牌(unaided brand awareness)知名度僅約 30%。

「無提示品牌知名度(Unaided Brand Awareness)」的測驗通常是這樣進行的:
受訪者不會收到任何品牌名稱提示,調查員會問一個開放式的問題,例如:
「請問你最先想到的運動服裝品牌有哪些?」或「你能想到哪些提供瑜伽服或運動服的品牌?」
受訪者的回答會被逐字記錄下來,然後由研究人員進行分類和統計,看有多少人主動提到特定品牌(例如 lululemon)。

這樣的測驗可以衡量一個品牌在消費者心中自然浮現的程度,代表的是品牌的「心智佔有率」。和「提示品牌知名度(Aided Brand Awareness)」相比,無提示更難達成,但代表的品牌力也更強。

透過在地社群活動與品牌大使提高品牌曝光。
美國推出「會員瘋狂週」(Membership Madness)、與拉斯維加斯馬拉松合作。
倫敦與設計師 Saul Nash 合作並重新開幕攝政街旗艦店。
新品牌口號「Live Like You Are Alive」,與 78 歲健身網紅合作發起全球品牌活動。
2025 年 Align 系列 10 週年、跑步主題活動將持續推進。
新增品牌大使包含 PGA 球員 Max Homa、網球選手 Frances Tiafoe、F1 車手 Lewis
Hamilton。

Global brand awareness remains low, with unaided brand awareness in the U.S. at only around 30%.

Unaided brand awareness is typically measured through a survey in which respondents are not given any brand names as prompts. Instead, researchers ask open-ended questions such as:
“What athletic apparel brands come to mind first?” or “Can you name any brands that offer yoga or workout clothing?”
Respondents’ answers are transcribed verbatim and later categorized and analyzed to determine how many people mentioned a specific brand (e.g., lululemon) spontaneously.

This type of test gauges how naturally a brand comes to mind for consumers—what’s known as top-of-mind awareness. Compared to aided brand awareness, unaided awareness is harder to achieve but reflects stronger brand equity.

The company is working to increase brand exposure through local community events and brand ambassador initiatives.
In the U.S., it launched Membership Madness and partnered with the Las Vegas Marathon.
In London, lululemon collaborated with designer Saul Nash and reopened its Regent Street flagship store.
A new global campaign was introduced under the slogan “Live Like You Are Alive,” featuring a 78-year-old fitness influencer.
In 2025, celebrations for the 10th anniversary of the Align collection and running-themed campaigns will continue.
New brand ambassadors include PGA golfer Max Homa, tennis player Frances Tiafoe, and F1 driver Lewis Hamilton.

市場區域
Geographic Markets

美國業務轉強,但宏觀環境使消費者轉趨謹慎,來客數趨緩。
不過來店客的平均購買金額與商品數提升,代表產品創新有拉動力。
中國大陸 Q4 營收年增 38%、可比銷售年增 27%。
其他海外市場 Q4 營收年增 22%、可比銷售年增 17%。
美國全年營收預期為溫和正成長。

The U.S. business has regained strength, but the macroeconomic environment has led to more cautious consumer behavior and a slowdown in foot traffic.
However, the average transaction value and number of items per customer have increased, indicating that product innovation is driving sales.

In Mainland China, Q4 revenue grew 38% year over year, with comparable sales up 27%.
In other international markets, Q4 revenue rose 22% year over year, with comparable sales up 17%.

Full-year revenue in the U.S. is expected to show modest growth.

實體通路擴張
Physical Retail Expansion

2025 年預計增加約 10% 營業面積。
計劃新增 40-45 家自營門市,完成約 40 家門市優化。
將進入義大利(自營)及丹麥、比利時、土耳其、捷克(特許經營)。
倫敦攝政街門市擴大至 1.4 萬平方英尺,為歐洲最大褲款牆與男裝門市。

In fiscal 2025, the company plans to increase its total retail space by approximately 10%.
It expects to open 40 to 45 new company-operated stores and optimize around 40 existing locations.

Lululemon will enter Italy with company-operated stores and expand through franchise partners in Denmark, Belgium, Turkey, and the Czech Republic.

The Regent Street store in London has been expanded to 14,000 square feet, now featuring the largest pants wall and the largest menswear section in Europe.

2025 年財測
Fiscal 2025 Outlook

全年營收預估為 111.5 億至 113 億美元,年增 5%-7%。
除去第 53 週,年增為 7%-8%。
毛利率預期下滑約 60 個基點,主因為固定成本去槓桿、外匯逆風與關稅影響。
營業利益率預期下滑約 100 個基點,反映投資與外部成本壓力。
全年 EPS 預估為 14.95 至 15.15 美元(去年為 14.64 美元),匯率壓力約拖累 0.30-0.35 美元。

第一季營收預估為 23.35 億至 23.55 億美元,年增 6%-7%。
第一季毛利率預估與去年同期持平,SG&A 費用率預估惡化 120 個基點。
第一季 EPS 預估為 2.53 至 2.58 美元,與去年持平(2.54 美元)。

Full-year revenue is projected to be between $11.15 billion and $11.3 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 5% to 7%.
Excluding the 53rd week, revenue growth is expected to be 7% to 8%.

Gross margin is forecasted to decline by approximately 60 basis points, primarily due to fixed cost deleverage, foreign exchange headwinds, and tariff impacts.
Operating margin is expected to decline by about 100 basis points, reflecting continued investments and external cost pressures.

Full-year EPS is expected to range between $14.95 and $15.15, compared to $14.64 last year, with currency headwinds estimated to negatively impact EPS by $0.30 to $0.35.

For Q1, revenue is projected to be between $2.335 billion and $2.355 billion, reflecting 6% to 7% year-over-year growth.
Gross margin in Q1 is expected to remain flat compared to the same period last year, while SG&A as a percentage of revenue is expected to worsen by 120 basis points.
Q1 EPS is expected to be in the range of $2.53 to $2.58, roughly flat versus $2.54 last year.

庫存與資本支出
Inventory and Capital Expenditures

Q4 庫存年增 9%,略低於預期。
2025 年第一季預估庫存年增將達高雙位數(約 15%-19%)。
2025 年資本支出預估為 7.4 億至 7.6 億美元。

Inventory in Q4 increased by 9% year over year, slightly below expectations.
Inventory for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 is expected to grow at a high double-digit rate, approximately 15% to 19% year over year.
Capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 are projected to be between $740 million and $760 million.

其他重點
Other Highlights

行銷預算年增約 50 個基點至營收的 5%,未來仍有彈性調整空間。
品牌新客持續成長,活躍會員達 2800 萬人。

The marketing budget increased by approximately 50 basis points to 5% of revenue, with room for future adjustments.
The number of new customers to the brand continues to grow, with active members reaching 28 million.

同店銷售不如預期
Flat Same-Store Sales

Lululemon的美國同店銷售在第四季度持平,核心市場的成長停滯。執行長Calvin McDonald指出,消費者因經濟和通膨疑慮而縮減開支,導致客流量下滑。


Lululemon’s same-store sales in the U.S. were flat in Q4, indicating stagnant growth in its core market. CEO Calvin McDonald noted that consumers are cutting back on spending due to concerns about the economy and inflation, which has led to reduced foot traffic.

利潤率下降
Margin Pressure

公司預計2025財年的營業利潤率將下降1個%,其中超過一半的下降歸因於關稅影響。儘管Lululemon努力推動供應鏈多元化,但仍面臨關稅帶來的成本壓力。


The company expects its operating margin to decline by 1% in fiscal 2025, with over half of that decline attributed to tariffs. Despite Lululemon’s efforts to diversify its supply chain, it continues to face cost pressure from tariffs.

競爭對手增加
Rising Competition

近年來,包括Alo Yoga、Athleta和Vuori等品牌的崛起,對Lululemon的市場份額構成挑戰,市場競爭壓力不斷增加。
In recent years, the rise of brands such as Alo Yoga, Athleta, and Vuori has posed a challenge to Lululemon’s market share, increasing competitive pressure in the activewear space.

中國市場持續成長
Continued Growth in China

Lululemon在國際市場,特別是中國,仍保持強勁增長。第四季度中國市場銷售增長39%,顯示出品牌在中國地區的潛力。


Lululemon continues to experience strong growth in international markets, particularly in China. Sales in the Chinese market rose 39% in Q4, underscoring the brand’s potential in the region.




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