【冰質台股】202405027(一)-黃仁勳抵達臺灣，引爆AI IC設計大行情

作者：納蘭雪敏

聯發科今天2024年5月27日召開股東會，主要聚焦在幾個地方，首先未來趨勢方面，董事長蔡明介表示，5G/6G、AI、車用是未來數年的趨勢，公司將在車用、AI、ASIC等領域發展，期望未來能夠取得良好成績，特別是與Nvidia合作的汽車平台和AI晶片受到市場最大的關注，今天盤中一度跳空漲停來到1310元的價格，市值突破2兆台幣，這次合作的AI PC晶片預計在2025年H1上市，聯發科2024Q1毛利率52.4%，EPS是19.85元。

台北國際電腦展（COMPUTEX 2024）在6月4日至7日開展，Nvidia CEO黃仁勳提早在2024年5月26日就抵達臺灣，除了6月2日將至台大演講，預計展開一連串拜訪行程，包括台積電、聯發科、雲達、技嘉、和碩、英業達、緯創、緯穎等廠商，都積極與黃仁勳敲定行程。

聯發科的核心技術過去27年，公司整合運算、多媒體、通訊連網三大核心技術矽智財和PPA(performance/power/area)，提供系統晶片 (SoC)，利用台積電先進製程和封裝技術，達到性能、功耗、面積的最佳化，累積了現在的競爭優勢，早期是從消費性/PC/週邊開始到進入手機，現在包括手機/wifi/電視等為主要應用，目前持續往6G進步，除了在5G旗艦型手機晶片有重大發展，市占率一直增加，聯發科上季以智慧手機出貨量還是出貨營收計算，主要客戶是三星和小米的比重最高，搭載聯發科晶片的智慧手機出貨量年增21%至1.17億支，以終端裝置出貨量計算，聯發科是全球最大智慧手機晶片供應商，蘋果晶片的智慧手機出貨量成長7%至7,800萬支排名第二，安裝高通晶片的智慧手機出貨量成長1%至6,900萬支，排名第三。

比重則以22%為三星、20%為小米、14%為Vivo，中國傳音(Transsion)和OPPO各佔據13%，榮耀則是5%，聯想4%，realme也是4%。

而目前聯發科已經準備與高通一決生死，準備搶佔三星旗艦手機市場，高通Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 單個 SoC 成本為 200 美元，Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 據傳比前代更貴，三星旗艦手機可能不會採用Dimensity 9400 處理器去年2023年10月底與11月初，分別發表Snapdragon 8 Gen 3和Dimensity 9300，Snapdragon 8 Gen 4安兔兔 V10 軟體拿到 3,133,570 總分，Dimensity 9400拿到3,449,366 總分，分數聯發科更是更勝高通。

Snapdragon 8 Gen 4其他分數測試CPU / GPU / MEM / UX 等細項得分為 702,689、1,330,057、616,268、484,556 分，在 Geekbech 6 軟體測試下，單核效能拿到 2,845 分，多核項目為 10,628 分。

Dimensity 9400在這些同樣項目CPU / GPU / MEM / UX 等項目得分 786,574、1,422,243、725,851、514,698 分，在 Geekbech 6 軟體測試中，單核效能拿到 2,776 分，多核項目為 11,739 分。

繼台積電打敗了Intel以後，聯發科可能也準備在接下來的戰役繼續打敗高通。

副董事長暨執行長蔡力行表示，今年全年會有不錯的成長，公司將全力達成這個目標。未來三到五年，除了持續投資5G旗艦行動晶片，公司在車用、ASIC、Arm架構運算方面也有很大進展，經營團隊對未來三到五年的成長充滿信心。

人才方面聯發科通過限制員工權利新股發行，有助於連結股東價值，對焦未來成長策略目標，提升全球人才競爭力，吸引和激勵關鍵人才，確保公司員工利益與股東利益相結合。

聯發科完成第十屆董事會改選，堅持董事會多元化政策，持續透過海內外不同管道網羅多元人才。今年股東會通過增選一名獨立董事張耀文，董事會將由八位董事組成，其中含四位獨立董事，獨立董事比例達50%。

新任獨立董事張耀文現任臺灣大學電機資訊學院院長，曾任電子設計自動化學會總裁IEEE CEDA President)，榮膺ACM/IEEE會士 (ACM Fellow/IEEE Fellow)，長年致力於半導體學術研究。預期透過他的加入，將進一步提升公司的技術實力和學術連結。

聯發科在2021年開始業績大爆發，本業獲利達到1080億元新台幣，比起2017年僅有98億元左右，五年成長將近十倍之多，縱使這有疫情因素導致消費性電子產品大爆發，到了2022年與2023年雖然受到中國景氣不佳的影響，2022年繳出1268億元的本業獲利，而本業獲利則在2023年達到718億元。

目前公司針對2024Q2給出的財務預測在13-15.89原之間，目前累積H1的EPS約在32.85-35.74之間，而本業利潤則在516億元到560億元新台幣之間，應該業績會接近於2021年的狀況。

On May 27, 2024, MediaTek held its shareholders' meeting, focusing on several key areas. First, regarding future trends, Chairman Ming-Kai Tsai stated that 5G/6G, AI, and automotive applications are the trends for the coming years. The company will develop in the fields of automotive, AI, and ASIC, aiming to achieve good results in the future. Particularly, the automotive platform and AI chips in collaboration with Nvidia have garnered significant market attention. The stock price surged to a high of NT$1,310 during the trading day, with the market value surpassing NT$2 trillion. The AI PC chip from this collaboration is expected to be launched in the first half of 2025. MediaTek's gross margin for Q1 2024 was 52.4%, and the EPS was NT$19.85.

The Taipei International Computer Show (COMPUTEX 2024) will be held from June 4 to 7. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang arrived in Taiwan on May 26, 2024, ahead of the event. Besides giving a speech at National Taiwan University on June 2, he is expected to visit several companies, including TSMC, MediaTek, Wistron, Gigabyte, Pegatron, InnoLux, Foxconn, and Quanta, to finalize schedules.

Over the past 27 years, MediaTek has integrated three core technology IPs: computing, multimedia, and communication networking, and PPA (performance/power/area) to provide system-on-chips (SoCs). Utilizing TSMC's advanced process and packaging technologies, MediaTek has optimized performance, power consumption, and area, accumulating a competitive advantage. Initially, the focus was on consumer/PC/peripheral products, then moved into mobile phones, including mobile/Wi-Fi/TV applications. Currently, the company is progressing towards 6G, with significant development in 5G flagship mobile chips and increasing market share. Last quarter, MediaTek's shipments and revenue were mainly driven by Samsung and Xiaomi, with smart phone shipments increasing by 21% year-over-year to 117 million units. MediaTek is the largest supplier of smartphone chips globally, with Apple's chip-enabled smartphone shipments growing by 7% to 78 million units, ranking second, and Qualcomm's chip-enabled smartphone shipments growing by 1% to 69 million units, ranking third.

The market share breakdown is as follows: Samsung 22%, Xiaomi 20%, Vivo 14%, Transsion and OPPO 13% each, Honor 5%, Lenovo 4%, and realme 4%.

MediaTek is ready to compete head-to-head with Qualcomm, aiming to capture the Samsung flagship smartphone market. The Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 has a single SoC cost of $200, and the Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 is rumored to be even more expensive. Samsung's flagship phones may not use the Dimensity 9400 processor. Last October and early November 2023, Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 and Dimensity 9300 were released, respectively. The Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 scored 3,133,570 on AnTuTu V10, while the Dimensity 9400 scored 3,449,366, showing MediaTek's advantage.

The detailed scores for Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 in CPU/GPU/MEM/UX are 702,689, 1,330,057, 616,268, and 484,556, respectively. In Geekbench 6, the single-core performance scored 2,845, and the multi-core performance scored 10,628.

For Dimensity 9400, the scores in the same categories are 786,574, 1,422,243, 725,851, and 514,698, respectively. In Geekbench 6, the single-core performance scored 2,776, and the multi-core performance scored 11,739.

Following TSMC's triumph over Intel, MediaTek is also preparing to continue its battle against Qualcomm.

Vice Chairman and CEO Rick Tsai stated that this year is expected to see good growth, and the company is determined to achieve this goal. Over the next three to five years, in addition to continuing investment in 5G flagship mobile chips, the company will make significant progress in automotive, ASIC, and ARM architecture computing. The management team is confident in the growth prospects for the next three to five years.

Regarding talent, MediaTek approved the issuance of new shares with restricted employee rights, which will help link shareholder value, focus on future growth strategy goals, enhance global talent competitiveness, attract and motivate key talents, and ensure the alignment of employee and shareholder interests.

MediaTek completed the election of the 10th board of directors, adhering to a policy of board diversity. The company continues to recruit diverse talents through various domestic and international channels. This year's shareholders' meeting approved the election of an independent director, Mr. Yao-Wen Chang, bringing the board to eight members, including four independent directors, with an independent director ratio of 50%.

New independent director Mr. Yao-Wen Chang is currently the Dean of the College of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at National Taiwan University and has served as President of the IEEE Council on Electronic Design Automation (CEDA) and is an ACM/IEEE Fellow. He has long been dedicated to semiconductor academic research. His addition is expected to further enhance the company's technical strength and academic connections.

MediaTek experienced a significant performance surge starting in 2021, with operating profit reaching NT$108 billion. This is a remarkable increase compared to the mere NT$9.8 billion in 2017, representing nearly a tenfold growth over five years. Although this was partially due to the pandemic-induced boom in consumer electronics, the company still managed to achieve an operating profit of NT$126.8 billion in 2022 despite the economic downturn in China. In 2023, operating profit was NT$71.8 billion.

Currently, the company’s financial forecast for Q2 2024 projects an EPS between NT$13 to NT$15.89. The accumulated EPS for the first half of the year is expected to be between NT$32.85 and NT$35.74, with operating profit ranging from NT$51.6 billion to NT$56 billion. This performance is anticipated to be close to that of 2021.