臺灣在2024年5月27日發布4月景氣燈號，綜合判斷分數增加4分、來到35分，是2022年3月以來首度亮出黃紅燈，大家要回想一下，當時2022年的3月的黃紅燈其實是往下的趨勢，已經是最後一顆，這次的燈號，更像是2020年的12月，而且我認為這波景氣可能走的比2021年更久，但趨勢會比較緩，2021年因為受到全球塞港，他有短期供給問題和需求上升的兩大因素，但這次供給已經沒有問題，需求卻積極上升。
這次由AI應用帶動整個台股供應鏈，甚至聯電(2303)股價的短期突破也很值得注意，長榮(2603)上一季的本業利潤已經來到2022年Q4，雖然僅有2022Q4的約一半，當時2022年Q4的本業利潤是328億元新台幣，今年2024Q1則是156億元，不過現在股價更瘋，已經快要挑戰歷史高點241元了，長榮股價我個人是認為市場有點過度樂觀。
畢竟全盛時期，2022年當時長榮的一季最強可以來到1179億元新台幣，他還連續幾乎3季都獲利1000億元，現在就算有紅海危機，也不太可能有這麼好的景氣，股價似乎過度樂觀了，不過為什麼市場還是這麼敢衝，主要看在淨值已經在2021年猛爆性衝刺，導致股價目前的PB ratio也才剛過1，雖然長榮的低點PB ratio大約在0.7左右，要說現在是低點，至少股價要有30%的修正空間
回頭看一下景氣燈號的9項構成項目中，機械及電機設備進口值、批發、零售及餐飲業營業額均由綠燈轉呈紅燈，分數各增加2分，工業生產指數由黃紅燈轉呈紅燈，製造業銷售量指數由綠燈轉呈黃紅燈，分數各增加1分，海關出口值則由紅燈轉呈綠燈，分數減少2分；其餘4項燈號維持不變。
值得注意是海關出口由紅轉綠，國際預測機構S&P Global最新公布的全球商品出口年增率預測值，從先前5.1%下修到4.3%，修正幅度蠻大，加上美國對中國課徵關稅祭出新的措施，地緣政治風險也都在，各國復甦步調不一致，全球需求回溫沒那麼確定，我個人認為台股這波大行情主要是因為供應鏈與Nvidia各項重要的AI發展都有關，從散熱、PC、Server、晶片、車用，全部都有牽涉到目前的權值股，所以台股真的沒想像的貴，這主要是指數造成的幻覺，但許多小型企業就未必如此。
歐美等全球製造業除了中國與印度，似乎都正在轉冷，但AI的基礎投資熱潮從2023年5月開始似乎沒有斷，且如我預測的繼續往AI的邊緣計算移動，去年的這個時候我非常認真的把黃仁勳在台大的演講完整分享：
如果你去年買Nvidia你可以看看獲利多少，當時台股甚至只有16505點，更早我就看到廣達華麗轉身。
不過像是緯創3231去年大漲完以後幾乎都盤整休息了，廣達2382反而還有再創新高，仁寶2324今年反而不錯，反而像是鴻海2317，今年大漲超過75%，主要是他四月營收也創了五年來新高，不過說真的2024Q1的本業利益相當普通，甚至對比去年405億元還要差，不過鴻海很驚人是光是匯兌的其他綜合損益OCI，這個分類今年Q1就有503億元，目前市場對鴻海預估可能是自動化機器人，比如日本軟銀合作製造Pepper人形機器人依靠鴻準進行組裝鴻海自用的FoxBot機器人。
機器人與AI結合是Nvidia下一個非常重要的重點，如果能夠跨入AI機器人領域，鴻海股價會跟Nvidia一樣有超過倍數以上的成長，不過看目前狀況，鴻準2354，今年2024Q1本業利潤竟然才1300萬元！但接下來2024年5月31日鴻海和鴻準都準備召開股東會，可以查下看面的行事曆。
Taiwan released its economic indicators for April on May 27, 2024. The composite score increased by 4 points to 35 points, marking the first time since March 2022 that the yellow-red light has been lit. It's important to remember that the yellow-red light in March 2022 was on a downward trend and was the last one. This time, the indicator is more like December 2020, and I believe this economic cycle might last longer than 2021, but the trend will be more gradual. In 2021, there were short-term supply issues and rising demand due to global port congestion. However, this time, there are no supply issues, and demand is actively rising.
The entire Taiwanese stock supply chain has been driven by AI applications, and even the short-term breakout of UMC (2303) stock price is worth noting. Evergreen Marine (2603) also saw its core business profit in the last quarter reach the level of Q4 2022, although only about half of Q4 2022's figure. At that time, Q4 2022's core business profit was NT$32.8 billion, while Q1 2024's was NT$15.6 billion. However, the current stock price is soaring, nearly challenging the historical high of NT$241. I personally believe the market is a bit overly optimistic about Evergreen Marine's stock price.
At its peak in 2022, Evergreen Marine's strongest quarterly profit was NT$117.9 billion, and it had nearly three consecutive quarters with profits over NT$100 billion. Even with the current red sea crisis, it's unlikely to see such a strong economic performance again. The stock price seems overly optimistic, but the market's boldness is mainly due to the fact that net value saw explosive growth in 2021, leading to the current PB ratio just over 1. Although Evergreen Marine's lowest PB ratio was around 0.7, to say it's at a low point now would require a price correction of at least 30%.
Looking back at the nine components of the economic indicators, the import value of machinery and electrical equipment, as well as the business turnover of wholesale, retail, and catering industries, all turned from green to red lights, each increasing by 2 points. The industrial production index turned from yellow-red to red, and the manufacturing sales index turned from green to yellow-red, each increasing by 1 point. The customs export value turned from red to green, decreasing by 2 points. The other four indicators remained unchanged.
It's noteworthy that customs exports turned from red to green. The latest global goods export annual growth rate forecast by international forecasting agency S&P Global was revised down from the previous 5.1% to 4.3%, a significant adjustment. Combined with the new tariff measures imposed by the US on China, geopolitical risks, and the inconsistent recovery pace among countries, the global demand rebound is not very certain. I believe the current major wave in the Taiwanese stock market is mainly related to the supply chain and Nvidia's various important AI developments. This involves everything from cooling systems, PCs, servers, chips, to automotive applications, all of which affect current weighted stocks. Therefore, the Taiwanese stock market isn't as expensive as it seems; this is mainly an illusion created by the index. However, many small businesses might not be in the same situation.
Global manufacturing, except for China and India, seems to be cooling down, but the AI infrastructure investment boom since May 2023 appears to be continuing, and as I predicted, it is moving towards edge computing in AI. Last year around this time, I seriously shared Jensen Huang's (Nvidia CEO) speech at National Taiwan University in full:
If you bought Nvidia last year, you can see how much profit you've made. At that time, the Taiwan stock market was only at 16,505 points, and even earlier, I noticed Quanta's (2382) impressive transformation.
However, after last year's surge, Wistron (3231) has been mostly consolidating, while Quanta (2382) has continued to hit new highs. Compal (2324) has performed well this year, and Hon Hai (2317) has surged over 75% this year, mainly because its April revenue also hit a five-year high. However, Q1 2024's core business profit is relatively average, even worse compared to last year's NT$40.5 billion. However, Hon Hai's impressive performance in other comprehensive income (OCI) from foreign exchange gains alone was NT$50.3 billion in Q1 this year. The market's expectations for Hon Hai might be related to its automation robots, such as the Pepper humanoid robot manufactured in cooperation with Japan's SoftBank and assembled by Foxconn's own FoxBot robots.
The combination of robotics and AI is a very important focus for Nvidia. If Hon Hai can enter the AI robot field, its stock price could grow multiple times like Nvidia's. However, looking at the current situation, Hon Hai Precision (2354) had a core business profit of only NT$13 million in Q1 2024. However, both Hon Hai and Hon Hai Precision are preparing to hold their shareholders' meetings on May 31, 2024, which can be checked on our calendars.
-臺灣景氣燈號重回2020年12月，引爆2021年行情再來一次？){kind=link}
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