【冰質台股】20230526(五)-台積電大受Nvidia刺激,黃仁勳Jensen Huang台大演說宣告AI時代來臨!台股收16505點

作者:納蘭雪敏


台股週五收在16505點




台股週五受到Nvidia大漲影響,因為Nvidia財務數據大超預期,我已經特別拿一篇分析過了。

最早我就已經用廣達告訴大家,AI概念股會是5月的重頭戲,且就是因為AI概念股讓原本非常疲弱的台股大轉身,甚至一舉突破16000點。

雖然週五資金強勢,但漲停股票沒有AI概念比較相關的,市值超過100億元漲停的股票倒是不少2345智邦、5274信驊、2360致茂、6515穎崴、5289宜鼎、6643M31、8996高力、1608華榮、3131弘塑,這些蠻多倒是與台積電有相關,或者是晶圓相關的半導體概念,主要是現在市場資金從之前的ABF到CCL現在再到半導體相關的,全部都是繞著AI相關的伺服器有新的展望。

但我今天可能還沒辦法補欠的文章債,到比較想跟大家分享一下黃仁勳的演講,但最後還是會提一下焦點股。


Full Transcript: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's Commencement Address at National Taiwan University

Ladies and gentlemen, esteemed faculty members, distinguished guests, proud parents, and above all, the 2023 graduating class of the National Taiwan University. Today is a very special day for you, and a dream come true for your parents.

女士們,先生們,尊貴的教職員工,傑出的來賓,自豪的父母,尤其是2023年畢業的國立臺灣大學畢業生。今天對你們來說是非常特殊的一天,也是你們的父母夢想成真的一天。

You should be moving out soon. It is surely a day of pride and joy.So, your parents have made sacrifices to see you on this day. My parents are here, and so is my brother. Let's show all of our parents and our grandparents, many of them are here, our appreciation.

你們應該很快就要離開這裡了。這確實是一個充滿驕傲和喜悅的日子。所以,你們的父母為了今天這一天做出了犧牲。我的父母和我的兄弟都在這裡。讓我們向所有的父母和祖父母表示感謝,他們中的許多人都在這裡。

I came to NTU for the first time over a decade ago. Dr. Chen invited me to visit his computational physics lab. As I recall, his son, based in Silicon Valley, had learned of NVIDIA's CUDA invention and recommended his father utilize it for his quantum physics simulations.

十多年前我第一次來到台大。陳博士邀請我參觀他的計算物理實驗室。我記得他的兒子在矽谷工作,聽說了NVIDIA的CUDA創新,並建議他的父親在量子物理模擬中使用它。

When I arrived, he opened the door to show me what he had made. NVIDIA GeForce gaming cards filled the room, plugged into open PC motherboards, and sitting on metal shelves in the aisles were oscillating platform fans.

當我到達時,他打開門向我展示他製作的東西。NVIDIA GeForce遊戲卡滿滿地鋪滿了整個房間,插入了開放的PC主板,而在走道上的金屬架子上則擺放著搖擺的平台風扇。

Dr. Chen had built a homemade supercomputer, the Taiwanese Way, out of gaming graphics cards. He started here, an early example of NVIDIA's journey.
He was so proud, and he said to me, Mr. Huang, because of your work, I can do my life's work. Those words touch me to this day, and perfectly capture our company's purpose, to help the Einstein and Da Vinci of our time do their life's work.

陳博士用遊戲圖形卡製作了一台自家的超級計算機,很臺灣味的方式,也是NVIDIA旅程的早期範例。他感到非常自豪,並對我說,黃先生,因為你的工作,我可以做我的畢生事業。這些話至今仍觸動我,並完美捕捉了我們公司的目標,那就是幫助我們時代的愛因斯坦和達文西完成他們的畢生事業。

I am so happy to be back at NTU, and to be your commencement address. The world was simpler when I graduated from Oregon State University. TVs were not flat yet. There was no cable television, and MTV.

我很高興能回到台大,成為你們的畢業演講人。當我從俄勒岡州立大學畢業時,世界比現在簡單得多。當時的電視還不是平面的。那時還沒有有線電視和MTV。

And the words mobile and phone didn't go together. The year was 1984. The IBM PC-AT and Apple Macintosh launched the PC revolution.

那時候,手持裝置和手機這兩個詞還不是同一種東西。那一年是1984年。IBM PC-AT和Apple Macintosh開創了個人電腦的革命。

And started the chip and software industry that we know today. You enter a far more complex world, with geopolitical, social, and environmental changes and challenges.

並開創了我們今天所知道的芯片和軟體產業。你們將進入一個更加複雜的世界,充滿地緣政治,社會和環境變遷和挑戰。

Surrounded by technology, we are now perpetually connected, and immersed in a digital world that parallels our real world. Cars are starting to drive by themselves.
AI will create new jobs that didn't exist before

我們現在被科技包圍,我們現在持續連線,並沉浸在與真實世界平行的數位世界中。汽車開始自駕。 AI將創造出以前不存在的工作

Forty years after the computer industry created the home PC, we invented artificial intelligence. Like software that automatically drives a car, or studies x-ray images, AI software has opened the door for computers to automate tasks for the world's largest, multi-trillion dollars of industries.

電腦產業在創造出家用電腦40年後,我們創造了人工智能。像自動駕駛汽車的軟體,或者學習X光影像的軟體,AI軟體為計算機自動化全球最大的,數萬億美元的產業提供了可能性。

Healthcare, financial services, transportation, and manufacturing. AI has opened immense opportunities.

醫療保健,金融服務,運輸,和製造業。AI開放了巨大的機會。

Agile companies will take advantage of AI, and boost their position. Companies less so, will perish. Entrepreneurs, many of them here today, will start new companies.

靈活的公司將利用AI,提升他們的地位。反之,其他公司將會消失。企業家,其中許多人今天在這裡,將創立新的公司。

And like in every computing era before, create new industries. AI will create new jobs that didn't exist before. Like data engineering, prompt engineering, AI factory operations, and AI safety engineers.

就像在之前的每一個計算時代一樣,創造新的產業。AI將創造出以前不存在的工作。像數據工程師,prompt工程師,AI工廠運營師,和AI安全工程師。

These are jobs that never existed before. Automated tasks will obsolete some jobs. And for sure, AI will change every job. Supercharging the performance of programmers, designers, artists, marketers, and manufacturing planners.

這些是以前從未存在過的工作。自動化的任務將使一些工作變得過時。毫無疑問,AI將改變每一個工作。使程序員,設計師,藝術家,市場營銷人員,和製造規劃師的表現大大提升。

Just as every generation before you embraced technologies to succeed, every company, and you, must learn to take advantage of AI. And do amazing things with an AI co-pilot by your side.

就像你們之前的每一代人都採用了技術來成功一樣,每一個公司,和你,都必須學會利用AI。並且在AI的幫助下做出驚人的事情。

While some worry that AI may take their jobs, someone who expert with AI will. We are at the beginning of a major technology era, like PC, internet, mobile, and cloud. But AI is far more fundamental because every computing layer has been reinvented, from how we write software to how it's processed.

雖然有些人擔心AI可能會取走他們的工作,但是對AI有經驗的人將會取走他們的工作。我們正處於一個重大的科技時代的開始,像PC,網路,手機,和雲。但是AI更為基礎,因為每一個計算層都已經被重新創造,從我們如何寫軟體到軟體如何被處理。

AI has reinvented computing from the ground up. In every way, this is a rebirth of the computer industry. And a golden opportunity for the companies of Taiwan.

AI從根本上重新創造了計算。在所有方面,這都是電腦產業的重生。並且對台灣的公司來說,這是一個黃金機會。

You are the foundation and bedrock of the computer industry. Within the next decade, our industry will replace over a trillion dollars of the world's traditional computers with new, accelerated AI computers.
The first story of NVIDIA: Confronting mistakes and asking for help

你們是電腦產業的基礎和底石。在下一個十年,我們的產業將會用全新的,加速的AI電腦替換掉全球過萬億美元的傳統電腦。 NVIDIA的第一個故事:面對錯誤並尋求幫助

My journey started 40 years before yours. 1984 was a perfect year to graduate. I predict that 2023 will be as well.

我的旅程在你們的旅程之前的40年開始。1984年是畢業的完美年份。我預測2023年也將如此。

What can I tell you as you begin your journey? Today is the most successful day of your life so far. You're graduating from the National Taiwan University. I was also successful until I started NVIDIA.

當你們開始你們的旅程時,我能告訴你們什麼呢?今天是你們生命中到目前為止最成功的一天。你們正在從國立台灣大學畢業。我也是成功的,直到我開始NVIDIA。

At NVIDIA, I experienced failures. Great big ones. All humiliating and embarrassing. Many nearly doomed us.

在NVIDIA,我經歷了失敗。巨大的失敗。全部都令人羞愧和尷尬。其中許多幾乎讓我們垮掉。

Let me tell you three NVIDIA stories that define us today.

讓我告訴你們三個定義我們今天的NVIDIA的故事。

We founded NVIDIA to create accelerated computing. Our first application was 3D graphics for PC gaming.

我們創建了NVIDIA來創造加速的計算。我們的第一個應用是PC遊戲的3D圖像。

We invented an unconventional 3D approach called forward texture mapping and curves. Our approach was substantially lower cost. We won a contract with SEGA to build their game console, which attracted games for our platform and funded our company.

我們創造了一種不尋常的3D方式叫做前向紋理映射和曲線。我們的方法成本大大降低。我們贏得了與SEGA製作他們的遊戲機的合同,這吸引了遊戲進入我們的平台並為我們的公司提供資金。

After one year of development, we realized our architecture was the wrong strategy. It was technically poor. And Microsoft was about to announce Windows 95 Direct 3D based on inverse texture mapping and triangles.

經過一年的開發,我們意識到我們的架構是錯誤的策略。它在技術上很糟糕。並且微軟即將宣布基於反向紋理映射和三角形的Windows 95 Direct 3D。

Many companies were already working on 3D chips to support this standard. If we completed SEGA's game console, we would have built inferior technology, be incompatible with Windows, and be too far behind to catch up.

已經有許多公司在開發支援這個標準的3D晶片。如果我們完成SEGA的遊戲機,我們將建造出技術落後的產品,無法與Windows相容,並落後於競爭對手無法迎頭趕上。

But we would be out of money if we didn't finish the contract. Either way, we would be out of business. I contacted the CEO of SEGA and explained that our invention was the wrong approach.

但如果我們不完成合約,我們將資金耗盡。無論哪種情況,我們都將面臨倒閉的命運。我聯絡了SEGA的CEO,並解釋我們的創新方式是錯誤的。

That SEGA should find another partner. And that we could not complete the contract and the console. We had to stop. But I needed Sega to pay us in whole. Or NVIDIA would be out of business.

SEGA應該找其他的合作夥伴。我們無法完成合約和遊戲主機的開發。我們必須停止。但我需要SEGA全額支付費用,否則NVIDIA將面臨倒閉的危險。

I was embarrassed to ask. Irimajiri-san, the CEO of SEGA, to his credit and my amazement, agreed.

我感到很尷尬去提這個請求。然而讓我驚訝的是,SEGA的CEO入交 昭一郎,竟然同意了我的請求。

His understanding and generosity gave us six months to live. With that, we built RIVA 128. Just as we were running out of money. RIVA 128 shocked the young 3D market, put us on the map, and saved the company.

他的理解和慷慨讓我們有了六個月的生存時間。有了這個,我們創建了RIVA 128。就在我們即將耗盡資金的時候,RIVA 128震撼了年輕的3D市場,讓我們嶄露頭角,並挽救了公司。

The strong demand for our chip led me back to Taiwan after leaving at the age of four to meet Morris Chang at TSMC and started a partnership that has lasted 25 years. Confronting our mistake and with humility asking for help, save NVIDIA.

我們晶片的強大需求讓我在四歲離開台灣後再次回來,與台積電的張忠謀見面,並開始了一段長達25年的合作關係。正視我們的錯誤並謙卑地尋求幫助,這些行為拯救了NVIDIA。

These traits are the hardest for the brightest and most successful like yourself.
這些特質對於像您這樣最聰明和最成功的人來說,是最難的。 

The second story of NVIDIA: Endure pain and suffering needed to realize your dreams
NVIDIA的第二個故事:忍受實現夢想所需的痛苦和磨難

In 2007, we announced CUDA GPU Accelerated Computing. Our aspiration was for CUDA to become a programming model that boosts applications from scientific computing and physics simulations to image processing. Creating a new computing model is incredibly hard and rarely done in history.
2007年,我們宣布了CUDA GPU加速計算。我們的願景是讓CUDA成為一種能夠提升從科學計算和物理模擬到圖像處理等應用程序的編程模型。創建一種新的計算模型非常困難,且在歷史上罕見。

The CPU computing model has been the standard for 60 years since the IBM System 360. CUDA needed developers to write applications and demonstrate the benefits of the GPU.
CPU計算模型自IBM System 360以來已成為60年的標準。CUDA需要開發者撰寫應用程序並展示GPU的優勢。

Developers needed a large installed base. A large CUDA installed base needed customers buying new applications. To solve the chicken or the egg problem, we used GeForce, our gaming GPU, which already had a large market of gamers, to build the installed base.
開發者需要大量的安裝基礎。大量的CUDA安裝基礎需要客戶購買新的應用程序。為了解決先有雞還是先有蛋的問題,我們使用了已經擁有大量遊戲玩家市場的GeForce遊戲GPU來建立安裝基礎。

But the added cost of CUDA was very high. NVIDIA's profits took a huge hit for many years. Our market cap hovered just above $1 billion.
但CUDA的附加成本非常高。NVIDIA的利潤多年來遭受巨大打擊。我們的市值僅略高於10億美元。

We suffered many years of poor performance. Our shareholders were skeptical of CUDA. And preferred we focused on improving profitability. But we persevered.
我們經歷了多年的糟糕表現。我們的股東對CUDA持懷疑態度。他們更希望我們專注於提高盈利能力。但我們堅持下去。

We believed a time for accelerated computing would come. We created a conference called GTC and promoted CUDA tirelessly worldwide. Then the applications came.
我們相信加速計算的時代會來臨。我們創建了一個名為GTC的會議,並在全球無間斷地推廣CUDA。然後應用程序出現了。

Seismic processing, CT reconstruction, molecular dynamics, particle physics, fluid dynamics, and image processing. One science domain after another, they came.
地震處理、CT重建、分子動力學、粒子物理、流體動力學和圖像處理。一個接一個的科學領域,它們都出現了。

We worked with each developer to write their algorithms and achieved incredible speedups. Then, in 2012, AI researchers discovered CUDA.
我們與每個開發者合作撰寫他們的算法,並實現了令人難以置信的加速。然後,在2012年,AI研究人員發現了CUDA。

The famous AlexNet trained on GeForce GTX 580 started the Big Bang of AI. Fortunately, we realized the potential of deep learning as a whole new software approach. And turned every aspect of our company to advance this new field.

著名的AlexNet在GeForce GTX 580上訓練,開創了AI的大爆炸。幸運的是,我們意識到深度學習作為一種全新的軟體方法的潛力,並將我們公司的每個方面都轉向推進這個新領域。

We risked everything to pursue deep learning. A decade later, the AI revolution started. And NVIDIA is the engine of AI developers worldwide.

我們冒著一切風險去追求深度學習。十年後,AI革命開始了。而NVIDIA成為全球AI開發者的引擎。

We invented CUDA and pioneered accelerated computing and AI. But the journey forged our corporate character to endure the pain and suffering that is always needed to realize a vision.

我們發明了CUDA並開創了加速計算和AI。但這次旅程鍛造了我們公司的特性,使我們能夠忍受實現願景所必需的痛苦和磨難。 

The third story of NVIDIA: Strategic retreat
NVIDIA的第三個故事:策略性撤退


One more story. In 2010, Google aimed to develop Android into a mobile computer with excellent graphics.
再說一個故事。在2010年,Google計劃將Android開發成一種具有優秀圖形的移動計算機。

The phone industry had chip companies with modem expertise. NVIDIA's computing and graphics expertise made us an ideal partner to help build Android. So we entered the mobile chip market.
手機行業擁有調制解調器專業知識的芯片公司。NVIDIA的計算和圖形專業知識使我們成為幫助構建Android的理想夥伴。所以我們進入了移動芯片市場。

We were instantly successful. And our business and stock price surged. The competition quickly swarmed. Modem chip makers were learning how to build computing chips. And we were learning how to build modems.
我們立刻取得了成功。我們的業務和股價激增。競爭對手迅速湧入。調製芯片製造商正在學習如何製造計算芯片。而我們正在學習如何製造調製器。

The phone market is huge. We could fight for share. Instead, we made a hard decision and sacrificed the market.
手機市場巨大。我們可以為市場份額而戰。然而,我們做出了艱難的決定,放棄了市場。

NVIDIA's mission is to build computers to solve problems that ordinary computers cannot. We should dedicate ourselves to realizing our vision and to making a unique contribution.
NVIDIA 的使命是製造電腦,解決普通電腦無法解決的問題。我們應該全力以赴實現我們的願景,並作出獨特的貢獻。

Our strategic retreat paid off. By leaving the phone market, we opened our minds to invent a new one. We imagined creating a new type of computer for robotic computers.With neural network processor, safety architectures that run AI algorithms.
我們的戰略性撤退取得了成功。離開手機市場,我們開啟了我們的思維,創造了一個全新的市場。我們想像創造一種新型的計算機,為機器人計算機提供神經網絡處理器,運行 AI 算法的安全架構。

At the time, this was a zero billion dollar market. To retreat from a giant phone market to create a zero billion dollar robotics market. We now have billions of dollars of automotive and robotics business and started a new industry. Retreat does not come easily to the brightest and most successful people like yourself.
當時,這是一個不到十億美元的市場。從巨大的手機市場撤退,以創造一個不到十億美元的機器人市場。我們現在有數十億美元的汽車和機器人業務,並開創了一個新的行業。戰略性撤退對於像你這樣最聰明、最成功的人來說並不容易。

Yet, strategic retreat, sacrifice, deciding what to give up, is that a core, the very core of success?
然而,戰略性撤退、犧牲、決定要放棄什麼,是成功的核心,最核心的部分嗎?

Class of 2023, you're about to go into a world witnessing great change. And just as I was with the PC and chip revolution, you're at the beginning, at the starting line of AI. Every industry will be revolutionized. Reborn.
2023年的畢業生們,你們即將進入一個正在經歷巨變的世界。就像我當年處在個人電腦和芯片革命的開始,你們現在處在AI的起點。每一個行業都將被徹底變革。重生。

Ready for new ideas. Your ideas. In 40 years, we created the PC, internet, mobile, cloud, and now the AI era.
準備好接受新的想法。你們的想法。在過去的40年裡,我們創造了個人電腦,網路,手機,雲端,以及現在的AI時代。

What will you create? Whatever it is, run after it like we did. Run. Don't walk. Remember, either you're running for food, or you are running from being food.
你們將創造什麼?不論是什麼,像我們當初那樣追求它。奔跑,不要慢步。請記住,你要麼為了獲得食物而奔跑,要麼為了避免成為食物而奔跑。

I hope that part can be translated into Chinese so that everyone can understand.
我希望這部分可以被翻譯成中文,讓所有人都能理解。

Either you're running for food, or you are running from becoming food.
要麼為了獲得食物而奔跑,要麼為了避免成為食物而奔跑。

And oftentimes, you can't tell which. Either way, run. And for your journey, take along some of my learnings. That you will have the humility to confront failure, admit a mistake, and ask for help.
而且往往你無法分辨。無論如何,都要奔跑。對於你的旅程,帶上我一些的學習經驗。希望你能擁有面對失敗的謙卑,承認錯誤,並求助的勇氣。

You will endure pain and suffering needed to realize your dreams. And you will make sacrifices to dedicate yourself to a life of purpose and doing your life's work.
你將承受實現夢想所必須的痛苦和苦難。你將作出犧牲,致力於有目標的生活,並且去完成你生命中的工作。

Class of 2023, I extend my heartfelt congratulations to each one of you. Jiayou!
2023年的畢業生們,我向你們每一位表示我衷心的祝賀。加油!


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這篇內容真的非常感人,且呼應了我所說的臺灣科技島的新機會。

如果臺灣陷入了戰爭,將會把這個百年來最好的機會向外推,2024年的大選將攸關臺灣是否能選出一個和平並積極發展AI產業的領導人,唯有和平才能讓經濟以最高速發展,並脫離政治的意識形態,創造人民的財富,唯有財富與知識才是最強大的武器,才能以技術發展與產業革命去讓世界看見臺灣在地的科技能量,就如同世界AI的領袖黃仁勳為什麼選在臺灣找張忠謀發展他的晶片製造?又為什麼選在臺灣大學演講。

我這篇文章已經廣泛在很多社群、Line流傳,就是希望讓更多在地的臺灣人瞭解,科技島的今天是靠著有遠見的政策,能看的很遠的產業機會而來,孫運璿當年的睿智留給了臺灣世界第一的晶圓代工公司,張忠謀創造了退休後的帝國。

面對所有企業與個人都必須更新自己的大腦來面對未來百年將巨變的時代,Nvidia是來自臺灣台南的創辦人黃仁勳,黃仁勳出生於台南但告訴記者,晶片製造不一定在臺灣,但中國大陸市場無可取代。


兩岸之間的關係需要和平才能讓晶圓製造與AI供應鏈美好的發展,臺灣這次的機會來到了百年難得的新契機,為什麼我會這樣說呢?我在深度文有提過,美國這次並不一定是最大的受惠者,且黃仁勳特別提到:

黃仁勳稱與此同時,中國業者開始生產自有晶片,以與NVIDIA在市場上具領導地位的遊戲、繪圖和AI處理器競爭。如果中國無法向美國購買,中國只會自行製造晶片,所以美國必須小心。中國是科技產業非常重要的市場。如果如果美國公司無法與北京進行貿易,將對美國公司造成巨大損失。

這段話微軟創辦人比爾蓋茲曾說過類似的話,

美國前白宮國家安全副顧問博明(Matthew Pottinger)去年曾說:

中國對依賴28奈米晶片的每個國家、每個產業,都掌握具脅迫性的籌碼。這在晶片世界是很大一塊市場。

因為在美國斷了中國先進製程,中國主攻28奈米成熟製程拼命量產,Nvidia在中國AI具有非常重要的角色,幾乎重要的中國人工智慧系統都是靠Nvidia的系統去建造,如果失去中國市場對Nvidia會失去很大塊的市場,兩岸和平面對臺灣百年難得一遇的AI機會也是非常關鍵,在AI進入了應用層面後,將方方面面的改變我們的人生、產業、工作機會與未來!

焦點股

代號 名稱 成交 漲跌幅 現金年均殖利率
2383 台光電 202.5 -0.74 4.72
2313 華通 44.25 2.08 6.04
8046 南電 303 0.17 6.89
2618 長榮航 32.3 2.38 2.87
2357 華碩 308.5 1.31 5.36

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